V_V comments on What Can We Learn About Human Psychology from Christian Apologetics? - Less Wrong
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How much exactly would we expect to find?
I recall doing some research on the 2012 doomsday thing. As far as I can find, not even the Mayans have any idea what significance that date might have had, and the only reason we have any idea that that date is even a neat point on the calendar is that the Europeans visited just before the Mayans stopped using long count.
Do we have a lot written remains of their religions?
I guess we'd expect to find statues of Jesus (he supposedly visited, complete with holes in his hands and feet). I'm not sure if they would still be recognizable.
Their beliefs are probably more specific, if that's what you mean, but the contents of the Book of Mormon are specific. You don't decide that someone is more likely to be lying the longer they talk, purely because what they are saying is getting more specific.
It depends on your definition of "a lot", but certainly we have texts from pre-Spanish times which have been deciphered and, together with other evidence, give us a fairly good picture of who these people were and what they did believe: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_codices
We'd expect to find all kinds of written texts, and ruins of cities with inscriptions, statues, temples, tombs, etc. All the kind of stuff that this type of civilizations leave behind.
It depends on what they say. The more improbable claims that don't logically imply each other they make, the higher the chance that they are lying.
Alright then. I guess it is highly implausible.
Come to think of it, the bigger problem isn't what they wrote. It's what language they wrote it in. I assume it's clearly not anything that decedents of Hebrews were likely to use. From what I understand of the Book of Mormon, the Lamenites had their own religions, so finding plenty of non-Mormon stuff isn't too suspicious, but their languages didn't completely change.
Haven't we? Is there some reason all the stuff we find about the Incas and Mayas etc. don't count? Besides the writing, which we already discussed?
The longer they talk, the more unlikely it is a priori that what they're saying is true, but the greater evidence you have (since they're less likely to make that exact claim). I'd say the stuff in the Book of Mormon is the sort of thing that is more likely for someone to say than for it to be true, so each statement makes it less likely, but if you believe the Bible, you clearly don't think that.
Wikipedia makes many improbable claims that don't logically imply each other. I'd say that, a priori, it's far more likely for the Book of Mormon to be true than Wikipedia to even be mostly true. But since it's also a priori far less likely for the more detailed Wikipedia to exist, I would be willing to bet at good odds that Wikipedia is almost all true.