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ESRogs comments on Of all the SIA-doomsdays in the all the worlds... - Less Wrong
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I'm having trouble understanding the setup and how the conclusions follow from the two assumptions in the first section.
As I understand, I know that I'm in the 2013 box -- do I also know the number of others in the 2013 box? I had thought so, but then I'm not sure why I'm reasoning about the "expected number of observers in 2013" in the SIA paragraph. Shouldn't my knowledge of the true number screen off my expectations?