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army1987 comments on Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions - Less Wrong

71 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 August 2007 10:27PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 10 October 2012 09:24:31AM 0 points [-]

"if you're meant to die in a plane crash and avoid flying, then a plane will end up crashing into you!"

I often say stuff like that, but I don't mean it literally. When someone says “What if you do X and Y happens?” and I think Y is ridiculously unlikely (P(Y|X) < 1e-6), I sarcastically reply “What if I don't do X, but Z happens?” where Z is obviously even more ridiculous (P(Z|~X) < 1e-12, e.g. “a meteorite falls onto my head and kills me”).