buybuydandavis comments on Trusting Expert Consensus - Less Wrong

27 Post author: ChrisHallquist 16 October 2013 08:22PM

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Comment author: buybuydandavis 26 October 2013 10:12:13AM *  5 points [-]

There is significant ambiguity there- many people identify as "global warming skeptics" in that they are skeptical of the moral and political claims of the global warming movement, not that they deny the existence of AGW.

I'm not skeptical of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, or of the increase of atmospheric CO2, or that increasing CO2 levels will generally lead to higher temperatures, or that we have had higher temperatures in the last few decades.

But I am skeptical of the model projections into the future, and even more skeptical of the claims that the accuracy of those models have been established when they've proven inaccurate for the last decade. When you make predictions that fail, you should be decreasing your certainty in the model that gave those predictions.

Comment author: Vaniver 27 October 2013 07:39:24PM 0 points [-]

I put "predictive or prescriptive claims" into my second bit, but I probably should have included it there as well.