If that is what you meant then I do not understand how the world looks to you, or why you're not spending this time fundraising for CSER / taking heroin.

Classy.

I have only 5 bins here with which to span everything in (0,1): theoretically possible but unlikely, somewhat likely, likely, very likely, and inevitable. The goal is a rough ranking, at this point, I don't have enough information to meaningfully estimate actual probabilities. You have a good point, though: it would be more self-consistent to say conditional on no overshoot for the first set.

If flaming me is what it takes for you to think seriously about this, then maybe it's worth it.