Viliam_Bur comments on Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark - Less Wrong

45 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 August 2007 03:55AM

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Comment author: Viliam_Bur 05 August 2013 11:24:37AM *  0 points [-]

He even asked why the game didn't punish people for just making the same koan over and over again, since it would be guaranteed to "follow the rule." I eventually managed to convey that the object of the game is to be able to tell me, in words, what you think the rule is.

Maybe this provides some insight into the nature of positive bias. In the game, the only goal is to find the rule; there is no punishment for asking a wrong sequence. But I guess the real life is not like this. In real life, especially in the ancient environment, making a wrong guess is costly; and our cognitive algorithms were optimized for that.

For example, imagine that the rule is some taboo, punishable by death. It is better to avoid the punishment, than to find the boundaries precisely. Avoiding a superset of the taboo also has some cost, but that cost is probably cheaper than being stoned to death. If you know that the sequence "2-4-6" does not get you killed (unlike some other sequences, not explicitly known which ones), it may be wise to guess "2-4-6" over and over again.