Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

V_V comments on Bayesianism for Humans - Less Wrong

52 Post author: ChrisHallquist 29 October 2013 11:54PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (37)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: V_V 01 November 2013 01:15:11PM -1 points [-]

The statement, "You should expect that, on average, a test will leave your beliefs unchanged," means that you cannot expect an unbiased test to change you beliefs in a particular direction, as is clear from the original post.

Actually you can:
Shake a box with a coin you know to be biased. Before you look into the box, your belief for heads is, say, 80%. You expect that is more likely that, when you open the box, your belief will change to 100% heads rather than 0%.

I don't think there is an useful way to patch the statement without making explicit reference to the technical definition of Bayesian belief.