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gwern comments on MIRI strategy - Less Wrong
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Bah! Fine then, we won't bet. IMO, you should have offered more generous terms. If your true probability is 2%, then that's an odds against of 1:49, while his 65% would be 1:0.53, if I'm cranking the formula right. So a 1:2 doesn't seem like a true split.
You are probably right about how it's not a true split -- I just did a stupid "add and divide by 2" on the percentages, but it doesn't really work like that.. He would anticipate to lose once every 3 times, but given my percentages I anticipated to lose once every 50 times. (I'm not very mathy at all)