lukeprog comments on Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers - Less Wrong
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It's interesting to glance at how much this differs by field. E.g. progress in physics, microprocessors, number theory, and some parts of biology seems much harder than it was in 1940 because so much low-hanging fruit has been scooped up, and one now has to study for a very long time to make advances on the current frontier. Progress in logic seems harder now than in 1940, but not incredibly so — there is still lots of low-hanging fruit. Progress in psychology might actually be easier today than it was in 1940, because we have better tools, and so few psychological phenomena have been studied with a good method and large-enough sample sizes. (But this doesn't mean I expect progress in psychology to accelerate.) Progress in robotics is vastly easier today than it was in 1980 because sensors, actuators, and microprocessors are vastly cheaper. Progress in genomics is probably easier today than in 1980 due to rapidly falling sequencing costs, and falling computation costs for data storage and processing.
Also, I might as well mention the three cites on this topic from IE:EI and When Will AI Be Created: Davis (2012); Arbesman (2011); Jones (2009).
Obligatory link.