I admit, I don't feel like I fully grasp all the reasons for the disagreement between Eliezer and myself on this issue. Some of the disagreement, I suspect, comes from slightly different views on the nature of intelligence, though I'm having the trouble pinpointing what those differences might be. But some of the difference, I'm think, comes from the fact that I've become convinced humans suffer from a Lone Genius Bias—a tendency to over-attribute scientific and technological progress to the efforts of lone geniuses.

David thinks - contrary to all the evidence - that Goliath will lose? Yawn: news is at eleven.