wedrifid comments on My Wild and Reckless Youth - Less Wrong
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We may also have meant different things by "if life on earth evolved". I read it as "conditional on self replicating things we could call 'life' emerged on earth, how would I expect things to proceed" where it could also have meant "conditional on intelligent life like we know it having been evolved, how would I expect that process to have gone".
What I was intending to convey was not so much that one stable form of goo would remain permanently but rather that there is a significant component of the great filter in the stages between life emerging and general-intelligence evolving as well as the component before life emerges at all. I expect that most planets where life evolves at all to not evolve general intelligence or even other lifeforms as interesting as what we consider lesser animals. I expect it to get stuck in local minima rather frequently.