Peterdjones comments on My Wild and Reckless Youth - Less Wrong
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Comments (51)
I think the following should be added to the about page in some form:
Until I read this exact paragraph I was always a little confused as to how any of this was terribly new or eye-opening. Putting everything that I have read in the last week into a perspective that includes this paragraph makes everything significantly more potent. If this nugget was in the previous posts I either missed it or forgot it. Either way, its impact did not match its importance.
So, yeah.
One correct probability estimate of what? You are tacitly assuming that someone has mapped the ideaspace and presented you with a tidy menu of options. But no-one could have converged on relativity before Einstein because he hadn't thought of it yet. Guessing bad, hypothesing good.
So...no.