Very true as well, though I will add the counter-caveat that the expert is usually biased toward concluding that your situation is not unusual.
Well, we don't know that they're actually biased in this direction until we know how their assessment of the probability that the usual thing is going on compares to the actual probability that the usual thing is going on.
Yes, there are plenty of "tech support horror stories" where the consultant has a hard time catching on to the fact that the complainant is not dealing with a usual or trivial problem, but for every one of those, there tends to be a slew of horror stories from the other end, of people getting completely wound up over something that the consultant can solve trivially, and failing to follow the simple advice needed to do so.
The consultants could be very well calibrated, and still occasionally be dramatically wrong. Beware availability bias.
Note that cases where the tech tells you that it's usual problem X, and you deny this, asserting that your thing is a special snowflake, is NOT a case of the opposite bias. It's just a case of correct identification.
The opposite bias would be if the usual thing was going on, but the tech thought that it was some unusual thing.
Other IT-experienced people are welcome to correct me on this, but in my experience, the latter almost never happens, and when it does, it's mostly with newbie techies, recent hires/trainees, etc.
This makes it substantially more likel...
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are: