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joaolkf comments on How to choose a country/city? - Less Wrong
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I'm a bit confused as to the point of this. First, you already seem to have a ranked list, only with a few draws - where does this ranking come from? Second, what exactly is it that you need to choose? Which ones of these to apply to? How many? Why not all? It might be beneficial to postpone the choice and make it easier by then narrowing the set of options down to those that accept you.
You are right, the post is not clear on that. My list is solely based on academic criteria. The point is how to factor out non-academic criteria. In fact, I do not even know which are these criteria. That would be my first question.
There are many things that will be affected by accessing these other factors. First, I think Oxford is much above the 2nd option. But it is above enough that if I do not get in on the first time (80% probability), I should wait and apply next year instead of going to somewhere else where I got accepted? Second, my current plan is to build to be the strongest possible application for Oxford and use it elsewhere. But if Oxford is not so clearly the undisputed 1st place, then I should be more concerned with building a good application that also accounted for other countries specific criteria.
I will add that to the post. Thanks.