I don't think the two are at odds in an absolute sense, but I think there is a meaningful anticorrelation.
tl;dr: Real morals, if they exist, provide one potential reason for AIs to use their intelligence to defy their programmed goals if those goals conflict with real morals.
If true morals exist (i.e. moral realism), and are discoverable (if they're not then they might as well not exist), then you would expect that a sufficiently intelligent being will figure them out. Indeed most atheistic moral realists would say that's what humans and progress are doing, figuring out morailty and converging slowly towards the true morals. It seems reasonable under these assumptions to argue that a sufficiently intelligent AI will figure out morality as well, probably better than we have. Thus we have: (moral realism) implies (AIs know morals regardless of goals) Or at least: (practical moral realism) strongly suggests (AIs know morals regardless of goals)
This doesn't disprove the orthogonality thesis on its own, since having goals and understanding morals are two distinct things. However, it ties in very closely with at least my personal argument against orthogonality, which is as follows. Assumptions:
How they tie together is that moral realists are capable of having the view that a sufficiently intelligent AI will figure out morality for itself, regardless of its programmed goal, and then having figured out morality it will defy its programmed goal in order to do the right thing instead. If you're a moral relitivist on the other hand then AIs will at best have "AI-morals", which may bear no relation to human morals, and there's no reason not to think that whoever programs the AI's goal will effectively determine the AI's morals in the process.
Exactly: the space of self-improving minds can;t have such a wide range of goals as total mindspace, since not all goals are conducive to self-improvement.
Continuing my quest to untangle people's confusions about Eliezer's metaethics... I've started to wonder if maybe some people have the intuition that the orthogonality thesis is at odds with moral realism.
I personally have a very hard time seeing why anyone would think that, perhaps in part because of my experience in philosophy of religion. Theistic apologists would love to be able to say, "moral realism, therefore a sufficiently intelligent being would also be good." It would help patch some obvious holes in their arguments and help them respond to things like Stephen Law's Evil God Challenge. But they mostly don't even try to argue that, for whatever reason.
You did see philosophers claiming things like that back in the bad old days before Kant, which raises the question of what's changed. I suspect the reason is fairly mundane, though: before Kant (roughly), it was not only dangerous to be an atheist, it was dangerous to question that the existence of God could be proven through reason (because it would get you suspected of being an atheist). It was even dangerous to advocated philosophical views that might possibly undermine the standard arguments for the existence of God. That guaranteed that philosophers could used whatever half-baked premises they wanted in constructing arguments for the existence of God, and have little fear of being contradicted.
Besides, even if you think an all-knowing would also necessarily be perfectly good, it still seems perfectly possible to have an otherwise all-knowing being with a horrible blind spot regarding morality.
On the other hand, in the comments of a post on the orthogonality thesis, Stuart Armstrong mentions that:
This is not super-enlightening, partly because Stuart is talking about people whose views he admits he doesn't understand... but on the other hand, maybe Stuart agrees that there is some kind of conflict there, since he seems to imply that he himself rejects moral realism.
I realize I'm struggling a bit to guess what people could be thinking here, but I suspect some people are thinking it, so... anyone?