Christian apologist William Lane Craig claims the skeptical slogan "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" is contradicted by probability theory, because it actually wouldn't take all that much evidence to convince us that, for example, "the numbers chosen in last night's lottery were 4, 2, 9, 7, 8 and 3." The correct response to this argument is to say that the prior probability of a miracle occurring is orders of magnitude smaller than mere one in a million odds.

I'm not sure that response works. Flip a fair coin two hundred times, tell me the results, then show me the video and I'll almost certainly believe you. But if the results were H^200, I won't; I'll assume you were wrong or lying about the coin being fair, or something.

H^200 isn't any less likely than any other sequence of two hundred coin flips, but it's still one of the most extraordinary. Extraordinariness just doesn't feel like it's a mere question of prior probability.