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shminux comments on Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Certain That 53 Is Prime - Less Wrong
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Comments (68)
First, I really like you pointing out the frequent 99% cop out and your partitioning of low-probability events into meaningful categories.
Second, I am not sure that your example with 53 being prime is convincing. It would be more interesting to ask "what unlikely event would break your confidence in 53 being prime?" and estimate the probability of such an event.
The discovery of modular arithmetic and finite fields?
Presumably ChrisHallquist is already familiar with finite fields.