But this is very far from the truth. In the Obama-Bush example, there is more than enough evidence on the public record to swamp any racially determined prior.
In principal, yes. In practice there is also so much noise put out by spin doctors that it might very well make sense to fall back on the prior.
Well, then let's do a back of the envelope calculation based on statistics of today's student bodies. Let's stipulate that due to affirmative action, students of color are at the bottom of their class.
Harvard Law School's class body is 40% of students of color. The 25 percentile LSAT score at Harvard Law is 170, and score 170 is 97.5th percentile among people who take the LSAT. So at least (40%-25%)/40% = 37.5% of the students of color at Harvard Law have a 97.5th percentile LSAT. Let's assume that a black editor of the Harvard Law Review will be among...
Suppose I told you that I knew for a fact that the following statements were true:
You’d think I was crazy, right?
Now suppose it were the year 1901, and you had to choose between believing those statements I have just offered, and believing statements like the following:
Based on a comment of Robin Hanson’s: “I wonder if one could describe in enough detail a fictional story of an alternative reality, a reality that our ancestors could not distinguish from the truth, in order to make it very clear how surprising the truth turned out to be.”1
1Source: http://lesswrong.com/lw/j0/making_history_available/ewg.