Eugine_Nier comments on Stranger Than History - Less Wrong
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Even then, assuming the difference between the averages is one standard deviation of either race's distribution and each race's distribution is Gaussian, there is only 76% probability that the smarter guy is the one from the smarter race, which hardly counts as “must” in my book.
If both are per-selected to be in the upper Nth percentile for their race, likely given the way affirmative action works, the probability is much higher.