Lumifer comments on Stranger Than History - Less Wrong

52 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 September 2007 06:57PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 31 March 2014 04:19:04PM 1 point [-]

(there being no way to measure talent directly). VAuroch is pretty obviously of the opinion that admissions criteria are poor measures of talent

I would be interested to know what people consider to be better "measures of talent" than those usually considered by admissions office.

Comment author: Protagoras 31 March 2014 10:43:06PM 0 points [-]

One reason for thinking that a measure of talent is poor might be that it is outperformed by other measures. There may not be genuinely good measures of talent. It does occur some sort of retrospective measure based on results is probably better than what the admissions office uses, but that is surely still not a perfect measure, and is also obviously not a practical option to replace what the admissions office uses (unless someone invents a time machine). Another reason to think a measure of talent is poor, though, and this is probably more applicable here, is that a measure may be considered suspect if there is reason to think it is really measuring something else entirely, perhaps because it correlates suspiciously strongly with factors regarded as independent of talent.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 01 April 2014 01:06:55AM 1 point [-]

perhaps because it correlates suspiciously strongly with factors regarded as independent of talent.

Except you're only evidence that those factors are independent of talent is that you declare any test that shows a correlation suspect.

Comment author: Lumifer 01 April 2014 01:50:33AM 1 point [-]

might be that it is outperformed by other measures.

Well, which ones? I am asking to name specific measures (and, of course, forward-looking -- hindsight is not relevant here).

Comment author: VAuroch 01 April 2014 10:21:05PM 1 point [-]

Those usually considered by admissions offices are known to be horrible and in fact were originally selected so as to allow tacit discrimination while maintaining a veneer of fairness (specifically to discriminate against Jews, who by previous measures of achievement would have dominated the Ivies for a couple decades. Asians are currently in that same position.)

Comment author: Lumifer 02 April 2014 12:50:14AM 2 points [-]

I am still waiting for someone to be specific about what they consider to be better measures.

Comment author: VAuroch 02 April 2014 05:15:20PM 1 point [-]

Raw grades have been demonstrated to be better, but still not good.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 April 2014 05:29:43PM 2 points [-]

Link, please. Also, raw grade have been demonstrated to be better at predicting what?

Comment author: Nornagest 02 April 2014 05:40:25PM 0 points [-]

Also, raw grade have been demonstrated to be better at predicting what?

When people talk about predictors of success in college, they're usually talking about how well they predict completion of a four-year degree and/or college GPA. The first non-paywalled source I've found is this one, though I haven't read it closely enough to vouch for its quality.

(Note that I'm agnostic on the object-level question here; this is not intended to be an endorsement.)

Comment author: Lumifer 02 April 2014 05:55:15PM 3 points [-]

When people talk about predictors of success in college

Yes, but we are not talking about that. We are talking about "measures of talent" which, even given the fuzziness of the term, is clearly not limited to college GPA.

Two people in this thread has asserted that the usual measures (which I understand to be IQ proxies like the SAT and the high school GPA) are "poor" or "horrible". I asked for better measures of talent and so far got pretty much nothing.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 03 April 2014 05:24:13AM -1 points [-]

Raw grades are notorious for being subject to grade inflation and otherwise depending on the specific high school.

Comment author: VAuroch 03 April 2014 10:27:54PM 1 point [-]

You'd think that, but when it's actually put to the test, they're found to be a much better predictor of academic ability than standardized methods. Grade inflation and the vagaries of the schools apparently all come out in the wash.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 04 April 2014 03:00:48AM 0 points [-]

They're still subject to Goodhart's law.

Also, how were those tests measuring academic ability.