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PhilGoetz comments on Stranger Than History - Less Wrong
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"You can actually give a semi-plausible justification of special relativity based on what was known in 1901."
You can give a semi-plausible justification for anything. It was obvious at the time that our knowledge was incomplete, but the specific *way* in which our knowledge was incomplete was still a mystery. It is very easy to invent a plausible-sounding quack theory of physics; that is why we have the Crackpot Index.
Well, the key equation of special relativity had already been written down in 1901 as the Lorentz contraction. People just hadn't thought of interpreting it so literally.
But the larger point is still valid. Change the date to 1894 and it would be a complete novelty.