Gunnar_Zarncke comments on The dangers of zero and one - Less Wrong

27 Post author: PhilGoetz 21 November 2013 12:21PM

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Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 November 2013 11:01:28PM 2 points [-]

Another example where simple probability assignment fails is from "Reasoning with Limited Resources and Assigning Probabilities to Arithmetical Statements" by Haim Gaifman:( http://www.columbia.edu/~hg17/RLR.pdf )

A coin is tossed 50 times. Jack analyzes the sequence of 0’s (heads) and 1’s (tails) and concludes that the sequence is random, with nearly equal probabilities for each side. Then Jill informs him that the coin contains a tiny mechanism, controlled by a microchip, which shifts its gravity center so as to produce a pseudo random sequence–– one that passes the standard randomness tests but is in fact defined by a mathematical algorithm. [...] Jill gives Jack the algorithm and the outcomes of additional 50 tosses fully accord with the calculated predictions. Let h be the hypothesis that the outcome sequence coincides with the sequences produced by the algorithm. Let the evidence be e. Given e, it would be irrational of Jack not to accord h extremely high probability. Had P(h)–– Jack’s prior subjective probability for h––been non-zero, conditionalization on e could have pushed it up. But if P(h) = 0, then, P(h|e) = 0, for every e for which P(e) > 0. Now Jack’s prior probability accommodates the possibility of independent tosses with non-zero probabilities for ‘0’ and ‘1’. Therefore P( ) assigns each finite sequence a nonzero value, hence P(e) > 0. If P(h) = 0, then Jack cannot learn from e what he should, unless he changes probabilities in a way that violates the Bayesian prescription.

And it explicitly questions the modeling of 'unknown' possibilites as 0:

Jack has never considered the possibility of a coin that produces, deterministically, a mathematically defined sequence; hence, if the prior probability is to reflect anything like Jack’s psychological state, P(h) = 0. But could he, in principle, have made place for such possibilities in advance?

Comment author: PeterisP 23 November 2013 06:38:57AM 2 points [-]

Actually "could he, in principle, have made place for such possibilities in advance?" is very, very excellent question.

We can allocate for such possibilities in advance. For example, we can use a simple statistical model for limitations of our own understanding of reality - I have a certain number of years experience in making judgements and assumptions about reality; I know that I don't consider all possible explanations, and I can estimate that in x% cases the 'true' explanation was one that I hadn't considered. So I can make a 'belief budget' for the 'other' category. For example, any question like 'will the coin fall heads or tails' has to include 'other' option. It may fall on it's side.

A great example is the quotation "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."

If you want to handle reality, you have to model the probability of 'jack of spades jumping out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirting cider in your ear' as non-zero. 10^-99 might be ok, but not 0.