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Jiro comments on The dangers of zero and one - Less Wrong
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Comments (68)
Assigning more events zero probability leaves you worse off compared to someone who makes accurate estimates, but it doesn't necessarily leave you worse off compared to someone else who measures as poorly as you and makes poorly estimated measurements..
It's a way of mitigating the damage by not being able to measure well. You're still worse off than a person who can measure well, you're just not as worse off.
No. If you'd only ever seen TAAGCC, period, you would NOT have any sort of license to completely rule out the possibility of anything else. Indeed, the probabilities should be nearly even with a little more weight given to that particular observation.
Applying the Sunrise formula seems appropriate here.