...on account of Solomonoff induction
My impression is that Solomonoff induction starts by assuming the Occam's Razor.
no matter what probabilities you assign, almost all very complex hypotheses have to be very improbable because otherwise your total probability has to be infinite.
That's not a problem -- all simple hypotheses can be just as improbable.
Again, I am not saying that Occam's Razor is not a useful heuristic. It is. But it is not evidence.
My impression is that Solomonoff induction starts by assuming the Occam's Razor.
The fact that it buys you something interesting without making that assumption was the whole point of the paragraph you were commenting on.
That's not a problem -- all simple hypotheses can be just as improbable.
I don't believe that is true. Perhaps I've been insufficiently clear by trying to be brief (the difficulty being that "very complex" is really shorthand for something involving a limiting process), so let me be less brief.
First: Suppose you have a list o...
In two posts, Bayesian stats guru Andrew Gelman argues against parsimony, though it seems to be favored 'round these parts, in particular Solomonoff Induction and BIC as imperfect formalizations of Occam's Razor.
Gelman says: