mfb comments on Anchoring and Adjustment - Less Wrong

28 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 September 2007 09:33PM

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Comment author: mfb 04 August 2012 09:55:14PM 1 point [-]

What about many artificial anchors?

Make a list with powers of 1.2 from 1 to 10. Look at it to estimate some absolute number, assuming you can somehow estimate the correct order of magnitude.
In a similar way, for probabilities, make a list from 0 to 1 with a logarithmic scale of ratios in some interesting range.

It does not help for the year Einstein first visited america, but I would really use anchors for that: 1933 as upper limit, 1880 as lower limit, and the remaining timespan would be guesswork for me.
Looking at a biography, I think the answer is 1964+34-185+4*27 (to reduce the spoiler impact :p)