Maybe you are now going to read the scripture from our lord Kahneman as prescribed by Yudkowsky his prophet (ahem).
Original paper: http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf
Amazon: http://www.amazon.de/Judgment-under-Uncertainty-Heuristics-Biases/dp/0521284147
Or if you're not rich enough for Judgment under Uncertainty, try his latest work: Thinking, Fast and Slow. I found it to be just as informative, and more engaging than the classic.
Link