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paper-machine comments on The Statistician's Fallacy - Less Wrong
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Comments (67)
I replaced "orthodox statistics" with "frequentism" in the post in case that will make people happy, but as I understood him Ilya, wasn't just complaining about that, but also my own implied support for Bayesianism over frequentism. And maybe the standard LessWrong position on that debate is wrong, but to come in and announce that the LW view is wrong without argument, when it's been argued for at such great length, seems odd to put it midly.
Ilya comes across as not being aware of how much Eliezer and other people here have written about that debate. In fact, it's not even clear to me if he understands what someone like Eliezer (or for that matter, an academic epistemologist) means when they say "Bayesianism."
I don't see that anywhere. It's clear the majority of LessWrong (the actual subject of Ilya's actual sentences) thinks Bayesian statistics (who was talking about epistemology?) is better -- with the possible exception of gwern, who uses whatever is most pragmatic (and who I personally think is the actual winner of this debate).
Even a casual examination of their comment record (or, alternatively, a Google search) would have demonstrated that you're completely wrong in your assessment. I don't know any other regular on the site that knows more about statistics.
Allow me to introduce myself. I make my living as a biostatistician; I am philosophically a Jaynesian, in practice a statistical ecumenist. (I don't know and don't claim to know causal inference in anything like the depth that Ilya does -- that's his specialty, just like mine is Bayesian modeling.)
Nice to meet ya! Consider myself updated :)