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passive_fist comments on Rationality Quotes December 2013 - Less Wrong
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I'd be interested in some guesstimations on how much luck it would take to be Warren Buffett, for example. Survivorship bias in finance is often employed as a just so story.
The question is: luck in what, specifically?
Luck in every single trade?
Luck in that first trade that made him big money?
Luck in being exposed to trade at such a young age?
Luck in being born at the right place, right time?
Luck in having a specific set of genes that, say, gives him a high intelligence?
If you say "all of the above", then being Warren Buffet is pure luck, and since there is only one Warren Buffet in 7 billion people, the maximum likelihood estimate for the probability of having enough luck to be Warren Buffet is about 1/7,000,000,000.
This answer probably doesn't help at all, I'm just trying to point out some of the difficulties in guesstimation :)
I'd venture a guess luck/chance in this context means winning against the odds, making decisions that should have negative or zero/little expected utility given the available information and becoming rich in spite of that.
Is luck really this difficult a concept?
Yes?