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TheAncientGeek comments on International cooperation vs. AI arms race - Less Wrong
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History shows a variety of singular events. But it because they are singular, you can;t quantify their risk. So there is a contradiction between saying uFAI is a definite, known, risk, and saying it is an unprecedented singularity.)
What is meant by 'known risk' though? Do you mean 'knowledge that AI is possible', or 'knowledge about what it will entail'? I agree with you completely that we have no information about the latter.
The latter.