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TheAncientGeek comments on Snowdenizing UFAI - Less Wrong
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Comments (71)
Not proven.
No, not "proven" but highly likely.
The likelihood hasn't been proven either.This , this and this
Those aren't terribly helpful or persuasive arguments. And the second (broken link) when repaired is I believe supposed to link to http://lesswrong.com/lw/bfj/evidence_for_the_orthogonality_thesis/68np yes? That's not really that helpful, since that just amounts to saying that an AI won't be a random point in mind space and that some possible methods (partcularly uploads) might not be awful. That's not exactly very strong as arguments go.
It's not strong in the sense of reducing the likelihood of uFAI to 0. It strong enough to disprove a confident "will be unfriendly". Note that the combination of low likleihood and high impact (and asking for money to solve the problem) is a Pascal's mugging.
So how low a likelyhood do you need before it is a Pascal's Mugging? 70%? 50%? 10%? 1%? Something lower?
That's not my problem. It's MIRIs problem to argue that the likelihood is above their threshold.
... nnnot if your goal is "find out whether or not AI existential risk is a problem," and not "win an argument with MIRI".
You've argued that this is a Pascal's mugging. So where do you set that threshold?
I argue that a sufficiently low likelihood is a P's M, by MIRI's definition, so MIRI needs to show the likelihood is above that threshold.
I fail to follow that logic. There's not some magic opinion associated with MIRI that's relevant to this claim. MIRI's existence or opinions of how to approach this doesn't alter at all whether or not this is an existential threat that needs to be taken seriously, or whether the orthogonality thesis is plausible, or any of the other issues. That's an example of the genetic fallacy.
Your first link is broken.
How does the Orthogonality Thesis help your point?