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Dentin comments on Consciousness affecting the world - Less Wrong
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This is a classic "Microsoft help desk" answer: while technically correct, it doesn't really help solve the problem. Predicting via entropy distribution for complex systems is hugely more complicated than other methods, and the only places it can really work are things like the ideal gas law and rubber bands. Put together a bunch of systems capable of exporting entropy to each other and interacting, and you'll see the difficulty ramp up absurdly fast.
Since this is meta-level advice, there is no "the problem" in sight. Your criticism would seem to apply to cases not covered by my claim, to wit, cases where the phenomenological macrostate predictions are sharp even though the microstates are uncontrolled. If you're saying the cases that are covered are rare, I do not deny it.