If you're dealing with creatures good enough at modeling the world to predict the future and transfer skills, then you're dealing with memetic factors as well as genetic. That's rather beyond the scope of natural selection as typically defined.

What?!? Natural selection applies to both genes and memes.

I suppose there are theoretical situations where that argument wouldn't apply

I don't think you presented a supporting argument. You referenced "typical" definitions of natural selection. I don't know of any definitions that exclude culture. Here's a classic one from 1970 - which explicitly includes cultural variation. Even Darwin recognised this, saying: "The survival or preservation of certain favoured words in the struggle for existence is natural selection."

If anyone tells you that natural selection doesn't apply to cultural variation, they are simply mistaken.

I'm having trouble imagining an animal smart enough to make decisions based on projected consequences more than one selection round out, but too dumb to talk about it.

I recommend not pursuing this avenue.