= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Lumifer comments on Luck II: Expecting White Swans - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (86)
Isn't it taken directly from Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, where he advocates defenses against 'black swans' but conversely deliberately opening yourself up to 'white swans' through tactics like moving to cities?
Taleb doesn't seem to be terribly consistent about non-black swans...
Well, he seems to denote predictability with the colours, which was the point. Making white swans indicate rare good events makes no sense. The Wikipedia page suggests he uses the term black swan also for good events.
"Isn't it taken directly from Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan"
Right.
"Making white swans indicate rare good events makes no sense."
Actually, you could be right, but that's how I'm using it. I don't have my copies of Taleb's books in front of me, but I'm pretty sure he uses the terms the way I'm using them.
Did you check out the article Lumifer linked to? Perhaps Nassim changed his mind.