army1987 comments on Luck II: Expecting White Swans - Less Wrong
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I don't like the use of the terms "white swan" and "black swan" here.
The original use was derived from the way that people who hadn't been to Australia would (reasonably) have thought that all swans were white, and would have found the existence of black swans a completely unpredicted surprise, outside the scope of their mental models of the world. A "black swan" in this sense is just something very surprising, unprecedented, beyond the normal variation one's taking into account. (And a "white swan" would be the usual case: business as usual, nothing interesting happening.)
But in this article and its predecessor, it seems that "black swan" is being used to mean "unpleasant surprise" and "white swan" to mean "pleasant surprise" or "opportunity" or something.
This seems to me a much less useful bit of terminology than "black swan" originally was, and it would make me sad if it were to catch on.
Especially given that there already is a term specifically for positive black swans, namely “windfall”.
But there definitely should be a term specifically for negative black swans too.