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ThrustVectoring comments on Open thread for December 17-23, 2013 - Less Wrong
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As there was some interest in Soylent some time ago, I'm curious what people who have some knowledge of dietary science think of its safety and efficacy given that the recipe appears to be finalized. I don't know much about this area, so it's difficult for me to sort out the numerous opinions being thrown around concerning the product.
ETA: Bonus points for probabilities or general confidence levels attached to key statements.
Given that dogfood and catfood work as far as mono-diets go, I'm pretty hopeful that personfood is going to work out as well. I don't know enough about nutrition in general to identify any deficiencies (and you kind of have to wait 10+ years for any long-term effects), but the odds are good that it or something like it will work out in the long run. I'd go with really rough priors and say 65% safe (85% if you're willing to have a minor nutritional deficiency), up to 95% three years from now. These numbers go up with FDA approval.
They mostly seem to, but if they cause a drop in energy or cognitive capability because of some nutrient balance problems, the animals won't become visibly ill and humans are unlikely to notice. A persistent brain fog from eating a poor diet would be quite bad for humans on the other hand.
Most of the selective breeding has been done while these animals were on simple diets, so perhaps some genetic adaptation has happened as well. Besides, aren't carnivore diets quite monotonous in nature anyway?
I am not so sure of that. People have been feeding cats and dogs commercial pet food only for the last 50 years or so and only in wealthy countries. Before that (and in the rest of the world, still) people fed their pets a variety of food that doesn't come from a bag or a can.
In terms of what you kill and eat, mostly yes, but in terms of (micro)nutrients prey not only differs, but also each body contains a huge variety (compared to plants).
There's probably seasonal variation-- Farley Mowat described wolves eating a lot of mice during the summer when mice are plentiful. Also, I'm pretty sure carnivores eat the stomach contents of their prey-- more seasonal variation. And in temperate-to-cold climates, prey will have the most fat in the fall and the least in the early spring.
It wouldn't surprise me if there's a nutritional variation for dry season/rainy season climates, but I don't know what it would be.
I actually thought this way at first, but after reading up more on nutrition, I'm slightly skeptical that soylent would work as a mono-diet. For instance, fruits have been suggested to contain chemical complexes that assist in absorption of vitamins. These chemical complexes may not exist in soylent. In addition, there hasn't really been any long-term study of the toxic effects of soylent. Almost all the ingredients are the result of nontrivial chemical processing, and you inevitably get some impurities. Even if your ingredient is 99.99% pure, that 0.01% impurity could nevertheless be something with extremely damaging long-term toxicity. For instance, heavy metals, or chemicals that mimic the action of hormones.
Obviously, toxic chemicals exist in ordinary food as well. This is why variety is important. Variety in what you eat is not just important for the sake of chemicals you get, but for the sake of chemicals you don't get. If one of your food sources is tainted, having variety means you aren't exposed to that specific chemical in levels that would be damaging.
I still think it's promising though, and I think we'll eventually get there. It may take a few years, but I think we'll definitely arrive on a food substitute that has everything the body needs and nothing the body doesn't need. Such a food substitute would be even more healthy than 'fresh food'. I just doubt that this first iteration of Soylent has hit that mark.
I'll be watching Soylent with interest.
It seems to me that Soylent is at least as healthy as many protein powders and mass gainers that athletes and bodybuilders have been using for quite some time. That is to say, it depends on quality manufacturing. If Soylent does a poor job picking their suppliers, then it might be actively toxic.