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SarahC comments on Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased) - Less Wrong
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I wasn't talking about that aspect (although I think he's wrong there also) but just about the aspect of not doing a good job at things like estimating or mapping probabilities to reality.
I think it's really the same thing. Mapping probabilities to reality is sort of the quantitative version of matching degree of belief to amount of evidence.
Possibly taboo self-delusion? I'm not sure that's what he means. Self-delusion in this context seems to mean something closer to deliberately modifying your confidence in a way that isn't based on evidence.