wedrifid comments on Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased) - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 September 2007 08:05PM

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Comment author: RobinZ 08 December 2010 10:10:19PM 0 points [-]

If you had asked me to estimate 67% now that may have been tricky.

Move your estimation point until half the big side is the same as the little side. (Although I've practiced enough to do halves, thirds, and fifths pretty well, so I might just be overgeneralizing my experience.)

Comment author: wedrifid 08 December 2010 10:20:55PM 1 point [-]

Move your estimation point until half the big side is the same as the little side. (Although I've practiced enough to do halves, thirds, and fifths pretty well, so I might just be overgeneralizing my experience.)

Damn. I chose two random numbers and made a probability out of them. It seems I picked one of the easy ones too! :)

And yes, that algorithm does seem to work well for thirds. I lose a fair bit of accuracy but it isn't down to 'default human estimation mode' level.