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Liron comments on A proposed inefficiency in the Bitcoin markets - Less Wrong
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Ok, I admit I was ignorant of this. I just observed that the graph in the Wikipedia article for "Random Walk Hypothesis" was linear-scale. Thanks.
What made you believe that the Wikipedia version of one article gives you an accurate understanding of the complex formulas and computer models that today's quants use?
Why I wrote the article:
It's plausible that quants' methodology breaks down in sufficiently unusual markets. In particular, markets with huge volatility.
I want to propose the object-level idea that efficient markets should show a drag on price movement with respect to expected-value movement.
I would doubt that there aren't other markets with huge volatility. Certain options are probably high votilite right after related news items get posted.
On the other hand it might very well be possible that there are effects that you can find. There are quants that trade bitcoin but it's not a big market from a quants perspective
It might very well be that the particular trading algorithm that mtgox uses creates market effects that usual markets don't which are predictable when you throw the right math at it.
Personally akrasia was the only reason why I didn"t invest into bitcoin 9 months ago. I think that while it was possible that bitcoin might lose all it's value, the chances that it would get a multiptude of it"s value where high enough to counteract it.