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Lumifer comments on A proposed inefficiency in the Bitcoin markets - Less Wrong
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Sigh. Again, look at the context. There is a claim
Which happens to be wrong.
Ah, you're disagreeing with the model and phrasing it as "if that model were true, no one would sell you btc, but people are willing to sell, therefore that model is false." Do I understand?
If so, I do not agree that "if that model were true, no one would sell you btc" is a valid inference.
Essentially, the model says "there is free money lying on the ground, just picking it up is a 'guaranteed-positive-return trading strategy'."
I am pointing out that free money lying on the ground is an illusion.