I think it's worth considering the funding landscape and the funding situations of the various organisations - "how much good" is obviously not static, and will depend on factors including this one. I've commented in other places in this thread that FHI is underfunded relative to its needs as an organisation and the research we think is important to do. I believe this is true.
I also believe that FHI has funding opportunities available to it that aren't available to CEA/CFAR/MIRI. For example, at present ~80% of our overall funding comes from a combination of industry and academic grants.
This has its downsides - while this allows us scope to do a large amount of pure existential risk research, some of our research has to be tailored towards satisfying our funders, and so from a pure X-risk reduction point of view we are somewhat constrained. There are also a number of valuable uses of money that we can't use these funds for.
It means the ~20% that we gain from philanthropic sources has very high utility. These are the funds that allow us to do public outreach, thesis prize competitions, further philanthropic/industry fundraising, extensive networking and visitor programmes, and other important work that doesn't fit into a traditional academic research project - thus these funds add utility to the other ~80% of funds. Also, we have one researcher currently funded from a philanthropic donation, and he has the freedom to work purely on the Xrisk work he (or Nick Bostrom) considers most important, rather than having to devote some time to e.g. framing research output to fit an academic funder. This unconstrained research capability is of obvious value.
However, it also means that we can (at least at present) get the bulk of the funds needed to run the FHI from sources that may not be available to these other valuable organisations. While we can't usually get grants to get exactly what we want to do, we can usually get grants to do something reasonably close - enough so that we can use them to get useful work done (even if we lose some efficiency compared to unconstrained funding). Hence, while I think donations sent to FHI will do quite a lot of good, I would be very reluctant to see too much funding diverted away from organisations that may not have the same breadth of funding options available to them if at all possible. (Frankly, I prefer to get funding from companies that sponsor rugby teams when they're not sponsoring FHI ;) )This is also a reason CSER's been targeting academic councils in the first instance.
tl;dr: We get quite a lot of our funding from other sources, and so may not always need additional funds as much as organisations with a less broad funding profile. That said, philanthropic funds that come to us play an important role in our running and have high utility.
So it sounds as though while FHI values funds a lot in its current somewhat underfunded state, your utility function has steeply diminishing marginal returns for additional dollars past a certain point. Maybe you could start making annual announcements regarding the rough dollar amount beyond which you think FHI changes from a "great" giving opportunity to an "ok" giving opportunity, and also keep us up to date on what progress donors are making towards this dollar amount? This seems like it could be valuable for donors to better coordinate their giving and maximize overall x-risk reduction.
In a discussion a couple months ago, Luke said, "I think it's hard to tell whether donations do more good at MIRI, FHI, CEA, or CFAR." So I want to have a thread to discuss that.
My own very rudimentary thoughts: I think the research MIRI does is probably valuable, but I don't think it's likely to lead to MIRI itself building FAI. I'm convinced AGI is much more likely to be built by a government or major corporation, which makes me more inclined to think movement-building activities are likely to be valuable, to increase the odds of the people at that government or corporation being conscious of AI safety issues, which MIRI isn't doing.
It seems like FHI is the obvious organization to donate to for that purpose, but Luke seems to think CEA (the Centre for Effective Altruism) and CFAR could also be good for that, and I'm not entirely clear on why. I sometimes get the impression that some of CFAR's work ends up being covert movement-building for AI-risk issues, but I'm not sure to what extent that's true. I know very little about CEA, and a brief check of their website leaves me a little unclear on why Luke recommends them, aside from the fact that they apparently work closely with FHI.
This has some immediate real-world relevance to me: I'm currently in the middle of a coding bootcamp and not making any money, but today my mom offered to make a donation to a charity of my choice for Christmas. So any input on what to tell her would be greatly appreciated, as would more information on CFAR and CEA, which I'm sorely lacking in.