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Will_Sawin comments on Results from MIRI's December workshop - Less Wrong
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Yeah, updating probabilty distributions over models is believed to be good. The problem is, sometimes our probability distributions over models are wrong, as demonstrated by bad behavior when we update on certain info.
The kind of data that would make you want to zeroi out non-90% models. Is when you observe a bunch of random data points and 90% of them are true, but there are no other patterns you can detect.
The other problem is that updates can be hard to compute.