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shminux comments on Results from MIRI's December workshop - Less Wrong
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Hmm, most of this went way over my head, unfortunately. I have no problem understanding probability in statements like "There is a 0.1% chance of the twin prime conjecture being proven in 2014", because it is one of many similar statements that can be bet upon, with a well-calibrated predictor coming out ahead on average. Is the statement "the twin prime conjecture is true with 99% probability" a member of some set of statements a well calibrated agent can use to place bets and win?
For that purpose a better example is a computationally difficult statement, like "There are at least X twin primes below Y". We could place bets, and then acquire more computing power, and then resolve bets.
The mathematical theory of statements like the twin primes conjecture should be essentially the same, but simpler.
Sure; bet on mathematical conjectures, and collect when they are resolved one way or the other.