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jpaulson comments on Results from MIRI's December workshop - Less Wrong
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Hmm, most of this went way over my head, unfortunately. I have no problem understanding probability in statements like "There is a 0.1% chance of the twin prime conjecture being proven in 2014", because it is one of many similar statements that can be bet upon, with a well-calibrated predictor coming out ahead on average. Is the statement "the twin prime conjecture is true with 99% probability" a member of some set of statements a well calibrated agent can use to place bets and win?
Sure; bet on mathematical conjectures, and collect when they are resolved one way or the other.