I think this conversation is a time when numerical hypotheses are helpful; I personally did not expect the CFAR minicamp to increase income over the next year, happiness, or exercise, but thought if there was a discernible effect it was more likely to be positive than negative. A year is a short time as far as income is concerned; happiness is very hard to adjust; a weekend motivational retreat is unlikely to be effective at altering exercise relative to other interventions. (I exercise more now than I did before, primarily thanks to Beeminder, which shows up a lot in CFAR circles and some on LW, and I think I started that more than a year after going to CFAR the first time.)
Now, if the CFAR staff had put high probability on having success on one of those three fronts, then I think that logic is worth discussing.
"if the CFAR staff had put high probability on having success on one of those three fronts, then I think that logic is worth discussing."
It would seem somewhat strange for CFAR to test three variables they did not expect to increase...
Also I do not think happiness is very hard to adjust. There is research that some simple things can improve your happiness and have been tested with RCT's. E.g. meditation and gratitude lists had a measurable effect.
Summary: We outline the case for CFAR, including:
CFAR is in the middle of our annual matching fundraiser right now. If you've been thinking of donating to CFAR, now is the best time to decide for probably at least half a year. Donations up to $150,000 will be matched until January 31st; and Matt Wage, who is matching the last $50,000 of donations, has vowed not to donate unless matched.[1]
Our workshops are cash-flow positive, and subsidize our basic operations (you are not subsidizing workshop attendees). But we can't yet run workshops often enough to fully cover our core operations. We also need to do more formal experiments, and we want to create free and low-cost curriculum with far broader reach than the current workshops. Donations are needed to keep the lights on at CFAR, fund free programs like the Summer Program on Applied Rationality and Cognition, and let us do new and interesting things in 2014 (see below, at length).[2]
Our long-term goal
CFAR's long-term goal is to create people who can and will solve important problems -- whatever the important problems turn out to be.[3]
We therefore aim to create a community with three key properties:
Our plan, and our progress to date
How can we create a community with high levels of competence, epistemic rationality, and do-gooding? By creating curricula that teach (or enhance) these properties; by seeding the community with diverse competencies and diverse perspectives on how to do good; and by linking people together into the right kind of community.
Curriculum design
Progress to date
Next steps
Forging community
Progress to date
Next steps
Financials
Expenses
Revenue
Donations
Savings and debt
Summary
How you can help
Our main goals in 2014:
Footnotes