fowlertm comments on Doubt, Science, and Magical Creatures - a Child's Perspective - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Benquo 28 December 2013 03:26PM

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Comment author: fowlertm 28 December 2013 03:50:12PM 11 points [-]

It's also possible that, in concealing the information from your parents, you also managed to conceal it from the TF as well. It would be much, much harder to figure that out experimentally, given how little we know about the mechanisms by which purportedly magical beings interact with information.

Comment author: Benquo 28 December 2013 03:56:40PM 5 points [-]

True but my prior on that was about an order of magnitude lower than my prior on the tooth fairy being real at all. It's not necessary to explain the phenomena if it gets the info via parents.

Comment author: TobyBartels 02 January 2014 12:12:35AM 0 points [-]

In my household, it's well established that Santa Claus is in regular contact with the parents; Tooth Fairy lore is less well established, but that makes this a reasonable hypothesis. In yours, maybe not.

Comment author: ChristianKl 29 December 2013 09:12:04PM 3 points [-]

The straightforward way would be to simply ask the parents how the tooth fairy knows about the teeth before running the experiment.

Comment author: ygert 29 December 2013 09:26:43PM *  1 point [-]

The answer to that is "But maybe the parents are misinformed about the tooth fairies' abilities?" You can go on and on like this, but at this point I would stop praisuing the child for pursuing the ratinal method for solving problems, and strat educatting the child in the next lesson of rationality: 0 and 1 are not probabilities, all knowledge is probibalistic, and you need to do VoI calculations before rushing off to try to rule out narrow and increasingly unlikly options.

Comment author: Vulture 28 December 2013 06:58:46PM 2 points [-]

But the hypothesis where the TF's knowledge is more closely linked to the parents' is less natural; to me it feels like making excuses for a bad hypothesis.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 28 December 2013 08:24:18PM *  1 point [-]

Does it? Suppose for example that that the Tooth Fairy has every house with little children bugged and so hears verbal statements about loose teeth.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 29 December 2013 05:36:10PM 1 point [-]

That would require monitoring what happens to loose teeth in deaf families

Comment author: Vaniver 29 December 2013 06:55:30PM 3 points [-]

But the Tooth Fairy probably knows how to read lips, given its fixation with teeth.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 29 December 2013 08:17:32PM 2 points [-]

That leads me to think of some ethically questionable testing scenarios.

Comment author: ygert 29 December 2013 09:19:34PM 2 points [-]

Yes...

But seriously, there are simpler tests to do, or to do first. Try telling your parents not out loud, but in a written note. That would rule out audio bugging. Try telling an empty room, when no one else is around. That could rule out your parents. Try telling someone you know won't understand you. (Like a younger sibling.) Try miming it to your parents without using words. Try falsely telling your parents that a tooth fell out, when none did. Try telling your parents about your tooth that fell out, but not putting it under your pillow that night. Try giving your fallen-out tooth to a younger sibling and tricking him into pretending that that tooth was his to your parents. (Although that would probably mean giving up the income from that tooth.)

All in all, there are a lot of possible open tests that could be done, to narrow down the search space dramatically.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 30 December 2013 01:24:44AM 7 points [-]

You have a limited number of teeth to experiment with.

Comment author: Lethalmud 07 January 2014 01:31:49PM 3 points [-]

That's where your little brother comes in.

Comment author: Vulture 29 December 2013 02:59:57AM *  1 point [-]

But the point is that if we allow the Tooth Fairy to be sufficiently ill-defined, we can construct a version of it that allows for any negative experimental result. Benquo had a preconceived model of the "the Tooth Fairy" which was given some initial weight, and when it was contradicted by an experimental result then Occam's Razor strongly insists that we fall back on the null hypothesis*.

*(Unless there was some pre-existing good reason to suspect the "bugged house" hypothesis, which I doubt there was)

Comment author: Grif 28 December 2013 09:45:21PM *  1 point [-]

Perhaps the tooth fairy doesn't magically sense baby teeth under pillows, but she has to be sent a telepathic note from the child's parents first.