New Year's Prediction Thread (2014)

Thomas

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

Bitcoin will surpass $5,000 (for example, due to the opening of one or more easily assessible exchange traded funds).

Release of the consumer version of the Occulus Rift (if it happens in 2014) will bring back the 90's optimism for augmented and virtual reality. Someone will release a "metaverse" client for a peer-to-peer, decentralized, distribed virtual world.

ETA: Clarified "due to" construction of prediction.

The present value of a commodity reflects the market's best estimate as to the future value of that commodity. You are not smarter than the market; practically nobody is. If the market value of Bitcoin is X, then something not far from X is the best estimate of Bitcoin's near-future value. (The very best guess isn't exactly X because of cost of liquidity and time preferences.)

6bramflakes12y

What about Bitcoin surpassing 5k for any reason?

2passive_fist12y

The problem with all this 3d headwear seems, to me at least, to be that they don't really offer any substantial improvement over a monitor and mouse. Our brains don't need stereoscopic displays to percieve a 3d world. Our brains are very very good at building up a 3d representation of a world from just a 2d image (something that comes in very handy in the real world when one of your eyes is closed or non-functioning). And moving around a 3d world with your hand seems to be about the same, if not easier, level of difficulty than moving around with your neck. And the main disadvantage with headwear is discomfort. I'd give the Oculus Rift a 50% chance of success. At least augmented reality headwear (such as google glass or the very amazing Meta Spaceglasses: https://www.spaceglasses.com/ ) have something to offer that can't be had by a traditional monitor. However, it still remains to be seen how much people will actually desire those things. I can definitely imagine the Spaceglasses being widely used by creative professions. EDIT: Changed 'fatigue' to 'discomfort'.