somervta comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2014) - Less Wrong

9 Post author: Thomas 01 January 2014 09:38AM

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Comment author: somervta 01 January 2014 10:52:47AM 9 points [-]

Probability estimates?

Comment author: gjm 01 January 2014 02:15:54PM 13 points [-]

I predict that there will be disappointingly few of these.

Comment author: Benito 03 January 2014 02:13:58PM 2 points [-]

And those that there are will be pretty inaccurate (100%).

Comment author: [deleted] 01 January 2014 06:47:20PM 3 points [-]

Better than even odds or I wouldn't have said it. Any more precision than that would be intellectual dishonesty.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 January 2014 09:56:59PM 5 points [-]

How much Bitcoin do you own?

Comment author: [deleted] 01 January 2014 10:36:00PM 7 points [-]

A few dozen although I'm burning through it quickly. I make my living paid in bitcoin (I'm a bitcoin-core developer living off donations) so that isn't so much an investment as my current runway. Since I don't think any ETF will get online until Summer at the earliest, and my runway isn't that long, I doubt that I'll make much money off the rise. Assuming I keep getting donations, it'll be just a few months float at the most.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 January 2014 04:18:06PM 2 points [-]

I predict there's about 50% chance the price of bitcoin is going to rise and about 50% chance it's going to fall. Anyone wanna bet me on this?

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