This seems particularly unlikely in several ways; I'll skip the most obvious one
What was the most obvious one?
Saying that all civilizations able to create strong AI will reliably be wise enough to avoid creating strong AI seems like a really strong statement, without any particular reason to be true. By analogy, if you replace civilizations by individual research teams, would it be safe to rely on each team capable of creating uFAI to realize the dangers of doing so and therefore refraining from doing so, so that we can safely take a much longer time to figure out FAI? Even if it were the case that most teams capable of creating uFAI hold back like this, one single rogue team may be enough to destroy the world, and it just seems really likely that there will be some not-so-wise people in any large enough group.
If Strong AI turns out to not be possible, what are our best expectations today as to why?
I'm thinking of trying myself at writing a sci-fi story, do you think exploring this idea has positive utility? I'm not sure myself: it looks like the idea that intelligence explosion is a possibility could use more public exposure, as it is.
I wanted to include a popular meme image macro here, but decided against it. I can't help it: every time I think "what if", I think of this guy.