I'm guessing that the "Erroneous domain" column describes domains where the named biases allegedly don't function as such. I'm less sure that the table actually describes situations where that's true; it is somewhat less than obvious to me, for example, that our naive dread of terrorism vs. falling from ladders closely mirrors expected experience.
Not sure why prediction markets are on the table.
it is somewhat less than obvious to me, for example, that our naive dread of terrorism vs. falling from ladders closely mirrors expected experience.
Terrorism is a black swan (rare high impact) event. Thus the statistics rationalists-types use for dismissing it are almost meaningless. Consider attempting to estimate the danger of asteroid impacts or rogue AIs by looking at the last several millennia of data, terrorism has a similar problem.
Rules: