gwern comments on Rationality Quotes January 2014 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (186)
Terrorism is a black swan (rare high impact) event. Thus the statistics rationalists-types use for dismissing it are almost meaningless. Consider attempting to estimate the danger of asteroid impacts or rogue AIs by looking at the last several millennia of data, terrorism has a similar problem.
No, it's not. The biggest terrorist event ever is... what, 9/11 with something like 5k deaths? That's not high impact by any means. Annual variations in flu virulence outweigh that.
One of those is not like the other, one of those does not belong.